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The journey

In Futurescape, we explored the potential of forecasting tournaments in fostering open-mindedness, intellectual humility, and accurate forecasting among participants. Listen to Igor Grossmann, Principal Investigator on how our journey unfolded.

journey-video

Establishing quantifiable domains

EXPERT SELECTION

Participants from various professional organizations were asked to nominate experts with optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic perspectives on the future of human welfare and societal change.

Gathered from different corners of the globe, 28 distinguished scholars nominated 68 experts on human welfare. Thirty-four experts were selected from the 68 based on expertise and ensuring discipline diversity in the sample.

Domain and Indicator Selection

Eight domains were preselected based on expertise, team discussions, and relevance to human progress.

one

01

Civil liberties

Indicators:

  1. Human freedom index
  2. Democracy index
one

02

Climate

Indicators:

  1. Methane emissions
  2. Greenhouse gas emissions
  3. CO2 emissions
  4. Renewable energy
one

03

Economy

Indicators:

  1. Poverty rates
  2. GDP growth rates
  3. Unemployment rates
  4. Gini coefficient
  5. GNI per capita
one

04

Education

Indicators:

  1. Literacy rates
  2. Mean years of schooling
one

05

Mental health

Indicators:

  1. Life satisfaction
  2. Sense of meaning
  3. Number of suicides
one

06

Peace/War

Indicators:

  1. Global peace index
  2. Sense of meaning
public

07

Public Health

Indicators:

  1. Malaria Deaths
  2. Tuberculosis Incidence
  3. Life Expectancy
  4. Infant Mortality
technological

08

Technology

Indicators:

  1. Space Literature
  2. Worldwide Space Budget
  3. Robot Density
  4. Global Innovation Index
  5. Number of Tokamaks

Preselected indicators for each domain were chosen based on specific criteria including indicator specificity, global accessibility of data, data quality, and temporal resolution. Indicators and data sources needed to meet all criteria to be considered reliable.

Is the indicator concretely definable and does it reveal enough specific information to allow for measurement ? Successful indicators were ranked higher if they directly provided method of measurement (e.g., “number of”, “rate of”, etc.)

Is there any data for this indicator publicly available to indicate changes to human welfare? 

Does the source provide data for at least one-third of all countries (i.e. minimum of sixty-five countries) and does each country report data at least from the last ten years? Indicators that represent data representative of just the world (e.g., size of smallest chips in mass production) were treated as passing this criteria.

Data transparency: Is there accessible metadata explaining methods of data aggregation and estimation for missing data?

Composition transparency: Is there accessible metadata explaining the relationships of sub-indicators for syntactic indicators (i.e., indicators that do not exist as real-world phenomena but are derived from multiple sub-indicators)? For example, socioeconomic status is a syntactic variable that can be derived from income, educational attainment, pre-existing wealth, etc. If the indicator did not represent a syntactic variable, it automatically passed this criteria.

Is the data for this indicator systematically updated (e.g., on an annual basis) or are there major gaps in temporal resolution with no data for recent years?

24 experts individually ranked the eight preselected domains by perceived importance. They selected 4 domains as the most important.

one

01

Climate

Indicators:

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions
  2. Pollution/air quality
  3. Ecological footprint
public

02

Public Health

Indicators:

  1. Global burden of disease
  2. Total fertility
  3. Unsafe water death rates
  4. Life expectancy
  5. Infant mortality
  6. Crude birth rate
one

03

Economy

Indicators:

  1. Human development index
  2. Poverty rates
  3. GNI per capita
  4. Global food security index
one

04

Peace/War

Indicators:

  1. Global peace index
  2. Global non-state conflict
  3. Homicides
  4. Nuclear inventory
  5. Battle related deaths
one

01

Climate

Indicators:

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions
  2. Pollution/air quality
  3. Ecological footprint
public

02

Public Health

Indicators:

  1. Global burden of disease
  2. Total fertility
  3. Unsafe water death rates
  4. Life expectancy
  5. Infant mortality
  6. Crude birth rate
one

03

Economy

Indicators:

  1. Human development index
  2. Poverty rates
  3. GNI per capita
  4. Global food security index
one

04

Peace/War

Indicators:

  1. Global peace index
  2. Global non-state conflict
  3. Homicides
  4. Nuclear inventory
  5. Battle related deaths

Furthermore, they voted on the most reliable markers for each of these domains.

climate

Climate

Global CO2 emissions

economy

Economy

Poverty rate in the U.S.

Source: Poverty in the United States: 2022

health

Public health

Global infant mortality

Source: World mortality rate, Infant (per 1,000 live births)

peace

Peace/War

Global non-state conflict

Source: UCDP non-state conflict dataset

Forecasting tournament

Experts, superforecasters, and everyday people made predictions for each of these four domains.

Learn more
welfare

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